Captain! We Need to Abandon the Ship!

Our planet could look very different come 2100. Even assuming we stop all human-made emissions by 2060, temperatures will likely rise by more than 4°C and sea-levels by 1.5 metres. This will lead to billions losing their lives.

The year is 2100 and the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere now exceeds 1,000 ppm.1 As a result, average global temperatures have now risen by more than 4°C, and sea levels have risen by more than 1.5 metres.2 The consequences of this have been devastating.

In Africa alone, more than two billion people have lost their lives as extreme drought decimates both crop growth and water supplies.3 Across Asia, a massive increase in the amount of rainfall has led to unprecedented levels of flooding.4 This includes China where some 400 million people are now affected every year.5 In India, extreme drought and intense monsoon rainfall have decimated the country's cropland resulting in half the population losing their lives.6 In Bangladesh, some 22% of the country now sits beneath the ocean with a further 80% continuing to be flooded each year.7 This has rendered some 65 million people homeless,8 many of whom will soon lose their lives due to a combination of malnutrition, infection or dehydration.9 Within the Pacific, the island nations of Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives have all been consumed by rising sea levels.10 In Australia, chronic water shortages, famine and forest fires now plague the nation with government officials stating the country may become entirely uninhabitable by as early as the middle of the century.11 Similarly, in the USA, the central states are now plagued by extreme droughts, dust storms, water shortages and famine.12 This has resulted in some 66 million people being forced to relocate to coastal cities.13 In South America, some two-thirds of the Amazon has burnt to the ground leading to the extinction of some 32,000 different species of life and the release of a further 250 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.14 Across in Europe, an average of three tropical storms now make landfall every year,15 each causing more than $100 billion in damage and taking the lives of some 2,000 people.16 On top of this, occurrences of extreme summer heatwaves have increased ten-fold in southern Europe with each one taking an average of 100,000 lives.17 Around the globe, extreme temperatures have rendered many of the world's most famous cities near-uninhabitable during the summer months. This includes New York, Chicago, Washington, Paris, Barcelona, Prague, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo.18 The intensity of tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons have all increased, resulting in an estimated 20,000 people losing their lives each year in addition to some $800 billion of damage.19 On top of all of this, occurrences of both the Great El Niño and the Great La Niña have doubled over the course of the century.20 This has devastated the already fragile nations of Ethiopia, Malawi, Papa New Guinea, Peru, Kenya and Somalia who have little facility left to deal with such extreme events.21

In total, some four billion people have now lost their lives to climate change,22 a further 1.4 billion are suffering from chronic water scarcity,23 five billion people are suffering from chronic malnutrition,24 and a further 95 million have been forced to relocate as rising sea levels consume their homes.25 Moreover, the loss of life has not been restricted to humankind. Tragically, one in three of all species on the planet has gone extinct,26 all the world's coral has now been pronounced dead,27 vast swathes of forest have burnt to the ground, and the entire ocean is now effectively dead with no life forms to be seen for thousands of miles.28

Heartbreakingly, scientists state this is just the beginning. Thawing permafrost soil, forest fires and vegetation feedback will all result in massive quantities of additional greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere.29 On top of this, the loss of much of the world's plant life means there is very little left to absorb all the greenhouse gases produced.30 As a result, temperatures are set to rise at least a further 2°C over the next century even if human-made carbon emissions stopped immediately.31 When this is coupled with locked in sea-level rises of some 20 metres, scientists state that humans, and all other life for that matter, have a bleak future ahead of them.32

A World in Chaos!

Reacting to Climate Change

Now we know the devastation that climate change will likely bring, how quickly do we need to stop our emissions to prevent it? Find out by selecting the link below. Alternatively, return to the main menu to find out how we can put a stop our emissions.

Image Credits

Image of multiple superstorms seen from space created by SUPER RADICAL LTD. Stars underlay sourced from ‘Starry Night‘ taken by Kamil Porembiński, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY-SA 2.0. Earth underlay sourced from ‘Blue Marble‘ taken by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY 2.0. First hurricane overlay sourced from ‘Hurricane Katrina‘ taken by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY 2.0. Second hurricane overlay sourced from ‘Hurricane Igor‘ taken by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY-NC 2.0.

General Notes

Barrels of oil equivalent is based on 1628.2 kWh of energy being contained within each barrel. Data sourced from Unit Juggler – 'Converter: Barrel of Oil Equivalent to Kilowatt-Hour' – unitjuggler.com.

The volume of one tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to 556.2 cubic metres. Sourced from International Carbon Bank and Exchange – 'CO2 Volume Calculation' – www.icbe.com.

For further information about any of the sources listed, please visit the ZERO EMISSION WORLD Works Cited page.

Article Endnotes

  1. Based on climate model simulations that demonstrate if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060, and stop by 2070, it will likely result in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceeding 1,000 ppm. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  2. Temperature rise based on climate model simulations that demonstrate if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceed 1,000 ppm, it will likely result in an average global temperature rise of 4°C above pre-industrial levels. Sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Sea-level rise based on projections of a likely average rise of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  3. Very loose estimate based on projections that two-thirds of Africa's arable land will be lost between 2005 and 2025 in addition to the population increasing from around 1.19 billion in 2015 to around 4.39 billion in 2100. Loss of arable land sourced from United Nations Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 9. Projected population sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Please note, land loss is not solely due to climate change, but also a result of inappropriate farming systems, overgrazing, poor land management practices, lack of soil and water conservation structures and a high incidence of indiscriminate bushfires. Sourced from United Nations, Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 4.
  4. Loose estimate based on the number of days of medium precipitation increasing by 1.5%, the number of days of large precipitation increasing by 6.0% and the number days of heavy precipitation increasing by 27.3% for each average temperature rise of 1°C experienced by China and global temperatures likely rising by 4.6°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if f human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Sourced from Chen, Huo Po – 'Projected Change in Extreme Rainfall Events in China by the End of the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Models' – Pages 1,462 to 1,472. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 and 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  5. Loose estimate based on the 2010 floods experienced by China which affected some 230 million people. Sourced from Xinhuanet – 'Floods, Landslides Leave 3,185 Dead in China This Year: MCA' – news.xinhuanet.com.
  6. Loose estimate based on India currently having a population of 1.3 billion people, India having a projected population of 1.7 billion people, projections that India will only be able to supply the food demand of 59% of its population come 2030, rising temperatures likely resulting in additional yield losses of around 25% come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at twice the current rate and unpredictable rainfall likely leading to further yield losses. Current population based on 2014 data and sourced from The World Bank – 'Population, Total' – data.worldbank.org. Projected population based on 2050 projections and sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 20. Food demand shortage sourced from Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 22. Yield losses due to rising temperatures sourced from Guiteras, Raymond – 'The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture' – Page 4. Yield losses due to unpredictable rainfall sourced from Warrier, Gopikrishna – 'As Climate Change Disrupts the Annual Monsoon, India Must Prepare' – news.mongabay.com.
  7. Area submerged a loose estimate based on some 16% of Bangladesh being submerged if sea levels rise by 1.5 metres, Bangladesh likely sinking by one metre come 2100 and global sea levels likely rising by an average of 1.5 metres come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Area submerged as a result of sea-level rises based on climate model simulations sourced from GRID-Arendal – 'Vital Climate Graphics' – www.grida.no. Extent of Bangladesh sinking based on relative sea-level rises for the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta of between 8 and 18 millimetres per year if sea levels rise by only 7 millimetres per year. Relative sea-level rise within the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta sourced from Syvitski et al. – 'Sinking Deltas Due to Human Activities' – Page 684. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Area flooded based on at least eight previous floods affecting more than 50% of the land area in the last fifty years. Sourced from World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership – 'Bangladesh: Flood Management' – Page 1.
  8. Loose estimate based on a projected population of 202 million in 2050, 22% of the population losing their homes due to rising sea levels and a further 10% of the population having to relocate due to persistent flooding. Projected population data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 18.
  9. Loose estimate based on extreme floods causing nearly all the countries crops to be destroyed in addition to contaminating much of the countries water supply. Crop losses based on the 1998 floods which resulted in the entire year's rice yield being destroyed. Sourced from Bowden, Rob – 'The Ganges (A River Journey)' – Page 41. Contamination based on the current recommended intake of salt being 5 grams per day and coastal floods raising the salt content of the river water to as much as 8.21 grams per litre. Sourced from Vineis et al. – 'Climate Change Impacts on Water Salinity and Health' (Dec 2011) – Pages 5 to 10.
  10. Based on Tuvalu having an average height above sea level of less than two metres, the Kiribati Islands and the Marshall Islands both having an average height above sea level of two metres, the Maldives having an average height above sea level of 1.2 metres, sea levels rising up to three times quicker than the average rate in some parts of the Pacific and global sea levels likely rising by an average of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Tuvalu's average height above sea level sourced from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division for Sustainable Development – 'Tuvalu's Views on the Possible Security Implications of Climate Change' – Page 1. Kiribati Islands average height above sea level sourced from BBC News – 'Kiribati Island: Sinking into the Sea?' – www.bbc.com. Marshall Islands average height above sea level sourced from Pacific RISA – 'Marshall Islands' – www.pacificrisa.org. Maldives average height above sea level sourced from Barbière, Cécile – 'Maldives: Many Islands Will Disappear, Despite COP 21 Agreement' (26 Mar 2015) –www.euractiv.com. Increased rate of sea-level rise within the Pacific based on historical data between 1950 and 2009. Sourced from Becker et al. – 'Sea Level Variations at Tropical Pacific Islands Since 1950' – Pages 85 to 98. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  11. Chronic water shortages based on Perth and, to a lesser extent, Adelaide and Melbourne only being able to continue functioning if alternative water sources are found. Sourced from quotes by David Karoly, Climate Scientist at the Melbourne University contained in the Milman, Oliver – 'Pacific Nations Beg for Help for Islanders when Calamity of Climate Change Hits' – www.theguardian.com. Famine based on a projected likely 92% decline in value of the irrigated agricultural production within the Murray-Darling Basin of come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Sourced from Garnaut, Ross – 'The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Final Report' – Page 130. Forest fires based on the risk of catastrophic fire danger increasing from a one-in-33-year event to one-in-three-year event come 2050 in parts of Australia if human-made greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Sourced from Greenpeace – 'Future Risk: The Increased Risk of Catastrophic Bushfires Due to Climate Change' – Page 6. Country becoming uninhabitable based on projections that crop growth could become impossible throughout the majority of the country if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Sourced from Garnaut, Ross – 'The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Final Report' – Page 132. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Projections assume human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  12. Drought based on the risk of decade-long droughts increasing from around 5% between 1950 and 2000 to more than 80% between 2050 and 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Risk of decade-long droughts increasing sourced from Cook, Ault, and Smerdon – 'Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains' – Pages 1 to 7. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Dust storms based on those experienced in 1930 and sourced from Mattice, W. A. – 'Dust Storms, November 1933 to May 1934' – Pages 53 to 55. Water shortages based on non-renewable groundwater reservoirs currently being utilised to mitigate the impacts of drought and this water resource likely running dry as a result of increased drought length. Sourced from Cook, Ault, and Smerdon – 'Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains' – Page 6. Famine loosely based on crop yields falling by more than 50% for the states of Arkansas and Missouri as a result of the droughts experienced in 2012 and both the intensity and length of droughts likely increasing between 2050 and 2100. 2012 crop losses sourced from United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service – 'Crop Production: 2014 Summary' – Page 10.
  13. Relocations a loose estimate based around 50% of the population of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota relocating. States selected based on the states that experienced mild (-1) to severe (-3) drought between 1146 and 1155 according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Historical drought data sourced from Woodhouse et al. – 'A 1,200-Year Perspective of 21st Century Drought in Southwestern North America' – Page 21,286. State populations based on 2015 data and sourced from United States Census Bureau – 'Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States' – Table 1.
  14. Area of Amazon lost to forest fires based on projections from The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services that a 4°C rise in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels would destroy some 85% of the Amazon and average global temperatures likely rising at least 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Losses to the Amazon sourced from Adam, David – 'Amazon Could Shrink by 85% Due to Climate Change, Scientists Say' – www.theguardian.com. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Number of species affected a loose estimate based on there being around 45,500 species in the Amazon and 70% of those species becoming extinct as a result of the partial destruction of the Amazon. Number of species within the Amazon sourced from Da Silva et al. – 'The Fate of the Amazonian Areas of Endemism' – Pages 689 to 694. Amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere based on an estimated 171 tonnes of carbon being stored in each hectare of forest land, the Amazon having over 600 million hectares of forestland and the weight of carbon dioxide relative to carbon being 3.67. Amount of carbon released per hectare based on typical carbon quantities contained within the above-ground living biomass of a tropical wet forest. Data sourced from Keith et al. – 'Re-evaluation of Forest Biomass Carbon Stocks and Lessons from the World's Most Carbon-dense Forests' – Pages 11,635 to 11,640. Extent of Amazon Rainforest sourced from Encyclopaedia Britannica – 'Amazon Rainforest' – www.britannica.com. Weight relationship between carbon and carbon dioxide sourced from Romm, Joseph – 'The Biggest Source of Mistakes: Carbon vs Carbon Dioxide, A Factor of 3.67 Makes a Big Difference When Discussing Climate' – grist.org. Please note, we have been unable to source the proportion of carbon stored in the above-ground forest that is released into the atmosphere due to a forest fire. As a result, the projected carbon releases into the atmosphere may have been overestimated. Please also note, we have been unable to establish how much below-ground carbon is released into the atmosphere due to a forest fire. As a result, we have discounted all below-ground carbon from our calculations. This means the projected carbon releases into the atmosphere may also have been underestimated.
  15. Very loose estimate based on climate model simulations demonstrating a risk of tropical storm development over the Mediterranean Sea if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Risk of tropical cyclone development over the Mediterranean Sea sourced from Gaertner et al. – 'Tropical Cyclones Over the Mediterranean Sea in Climate Change Simulations' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  16. Loose estimate based on the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina. Sourced from Weaver, Teresa K. – 'Katrina and Rita: Five Years Later' – Pages 6 to 10.
  17. Increase in summer heatwaves based on extreme heatwaves increasing from a one-in-100-year event to one-in-ten-year event for large parts of Europe if average global temperatures rise 3.6°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Increase in extreme heatwaves sourced from Lehner et al. – 'Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental Integrated Analysis' – Figure 9. Number of people losing their lives based on around 70,000 people losing their lives as a result of the 2003 summer heatwaves experienced in Europe and heatwaves likely increasing intensity by more than 25% for much of Europe if average global temperatures rise 3.6°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Number of deaths during the 2003 summer heatwaves sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. Increase in intensity sourced from Lehner et al. – 'Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental Integrated Analysis' – Figure 11. Projected temperature rise sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Projections assume human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  18. Based on the human body not being able to use evaporative cooling if wet-bulb temperatures are greater than 35°C, peak wet-bulb temperatures in New York exceeding 36°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Chicago exceeding 35°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Washington exceeding 38°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Paris exceeding 32°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Barcelona exceeding 36°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Hong Kong exceeding 37°C come 2100, peak wet-bulb temperatures in Shanghai exceeding 40°C come 2100 and peak wet-bulb temperatures in Tokyo exceeding 33°C come 2100. Temperature requirements for evaporative cooling sourced from Sherwood et al. – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Pages 9,552 to 9,555. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in New York based on average high temperatures exceeding 30°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 65% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Chicago based on average high temperatures exceeding 29°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 68% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Washington based on average high temperatures exceeding 32°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 65% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Paris based on average high temperatures exceeding 25°C in July between 2005 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 70% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Barcelona based on average high temperatures exceeding 29°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 70% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Prague based on average high temperatures exceeding 24°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 70% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Hong Kong based on average high temperatures exceeding 32°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 80% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 8°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Shanghai based on average high temperatures exceeding 33°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 82% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 10°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Tokyo based on average high temperatures exceeding 30°C in August between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 72% during August, peak temperatures likely rising more than 8°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Average high temperature in New York sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in New York, New York, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for New York sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in New York (New York State), United States of America' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Chicago sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Chicago, Illinois, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Chicago sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Chicago (Illinois), United States of America' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Washington sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Washington DC, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Washington sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Washington (District of Columbia), United States of America' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Paris sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Paris, Île-de-France, France' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Paris sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Paris (Ile de France), France' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Barcelona sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Barcelona sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Barcelona (Catalonia), Spain' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Prague sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Prague, Czechia' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Prague sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Prague (Central Bohemia), Czech Republic' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Hong Kong sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Hong Kong, Hong Kong' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Hong Kong sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Hong Kong, Hong Kong' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Shanghai sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Shanghai, Shanghai Municipality, China' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Shanghai sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Shanghai (Shanghai Area), China' – weather-and-climate.com. Average high temperature in Tokyo sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Tokyo, Japan' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Tokyo sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Tokyo (Tokyo Prefecture), Japan' – weather-and-climate.com. Projected rise in peak temperatures sourced from Clark, Brown, and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Projections assume human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  19. More intense cyclones based on projections that there will be fewer tropical cyclones, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates and the number of very intense category 4 and 5 storms if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceed 580 ppm and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely increasing to 585 ppm come 2045 if human-made emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Changes to cyclone frequency and intensity sourced from Knutson et al. – 'Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios' – Pages 7,203 to 7,224. Atmospheric concentrations increase based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Number of people losing their lives each year loosely based on the average number of lives lost to cyclones between 1980 and 2008. Economic damage loosely based on the 2004 hurricane season. Both the number of people losing their lives each year and the economic damage sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be.
  20. Doubling of El Niño events based on climate model simulations that project extreme El Niño events will increase from one every twenty years to one every ten years by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increasing Frequency of Extreme El Niño Events Due to Greenhouse Warming' – Pages 111 to 116. Doubling of La Niña events based on climate model simulations that project extreme La Niña events will increase from one every 23 years to one every 13 years by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increased Frequency of Extreme La Nina Events Under Greenhouse Warming' – Pages 132 to 137. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  21. Damage to Ethiopia, Malawi, Papa New Guinea and Peru based on the impacts of the 2015 to 2016 El Niño event and sourced from Moloney, Anastasia – 'FACTBOX - Which Countries are Worst Affected by El Nino?' – news.trust.org. Damage to Kenya and Somalia based on the impacts of the 2010 to 2011 La Niña event and sourced from IRIN – 'La Niña-Induced Drought 'to Affect Millions'' – www.irinnews.org. For reference, the 2015 to 2016 El Niño event was categorised as 'Very Strong', and the 2010 to 2011 La Niña event was categorised as 'Moderate'. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – Golden Gate Weather Services – ggweather.com.
  22. Loss of life in 2100 a very loose estimate based on an estimated three billion Africans losing their lives due to a lack of food, 500 million Indians losing their lives due to a lack of food and water, 100,000 Europeans losing their lives every decade from 2050 onwards due to heatwaves, 20,000 people losing their lives each year from 2015 onwards to cyclones, 10,000 people losing their lives each year from 2015 onwards due to floods, 2.1 million people losing their lives every year from 2015 onwards due to air pollution, 3.1 million people losing their lives every year from 2015 onwards due to indoor smoke, 80,000 people losing their lives every year from 2015 onwards due to fossil fuel related occupational hazards and 45,000 people losing their lives every year from 2015 onwards due to fossil fuel related skin cancer. Number of Africans losing their lives a very loose estimate based on projections that two-thirds of Africa's arable land will be lost between 2005 and 2025 in addition to the population increasing from around 1.19 billion in 2015 to around 4.39 billion in 2100. Loss of arable land sourced from United Nations Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 9. Projected population sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Please note, land loss is not solely due to climate change, but also a result of inappropriate farming systems, overgrazing, poor land management practices, lack of soil and water conservation structures and a high incidence of indiscriminate bushfires. Population increase sourced from United Nations, Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 4. Number of Indians losing their lives a loose estimate based on India currently having a population of 1.3 billion people, India having a projected population of 1.7 billion people, projections that India will only be able to supply the food demand of 59% of its population come 2030, rising temperatures resulting in additional yield losses of around 25% come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at twice the current rate and unpredictable rainfall likely leading to further yield losses. Current population based on 2014 data and sourced from The World Bank – 'Population, Total' – data.worldbank.org. Projected population based on 2050 projections and sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 20. Food demand shortage sourced from Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 22. Yield losses due to rising temperatures sourced from Guiteras, Raymond – 'The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture' – Page 4. Yield losses due to unpredictable rainfall sourced from Warrier, Gopikrishna – 'As Climate Change Disrupts the Annual Monsoon, India Must Prepare' – news.mongabay.com. European heatwave losses based on around 70,000 people losing their lives as a result of the 2003 summer heatwaves experienced by Europe, extreme heatwaves increasing from a one-in-100-year event to one-in-ten-year event for large parts of Europe if average global temperatures rise 3.6°C above pre-industrial levels, the intensity of heatwaves increasing by more than 25% for much of Europe if average global temperatures rise 3.6°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projected temperature rise sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Number of lives lost as a result of the 2004 heatwaves experienced by Europe sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. Increased frequency of heatwaves sourced from Lehner et al. – 'Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental Integrated Analysis' – Figure 9. Increased intensity of heatwaves sourced from Lehner et al. – 'Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental Integrated Analysis' – Figure 11. Number of people losing their lives to cyclones based on an average of 13,893 losing their lives between 1980 and 2008 and projections that there will be fewer tropical cyclones, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates and the number of very intense category 4 and 5 storms if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceed 580 ppm and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely increasing to 585 ppm come 2045 if human-made emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Average number of people losing due to cyclones between 1980 and 2008 sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. Changes to cyclone frequency and intensity sourced from Knutson et al. – 'Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios' – Pages 7,203 to 7,224. Atmospheric concentrations increase based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Number of people losing their lives to floods each year based on an average of 6,753 losing their lives between 1980 and 2008, the number of days of medium precipitation increasing by 1.5%, the number of days of large precipitation increasing by 6.0% and the number days of heavy precipitation increasing by 27.3% for each average temperature rise of 1°C experienced in China in addition to global temperatures likely rising at least 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Average number of people losing their lives due to floods between 1980 and 2008 sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. Increase in precipitation sourced from Chen, Huo Po – 'Projected Change in Extreme Rainfall Events in China by the End of the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Models' – Pages 1,462 to 1,472. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Number of people losing their lives each year to air pollution, indoor smoke, fossil fuel related occupational hazards and fossil fuel related skin cancer based on 2030 projections and sourced from Development Assistance Research Associates (DARA) and the Climate Vulnerable Forum – 'Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet' – Page 17. Projections assume human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  23. Loose estimate based on an estimated 11.2 billion people inhabiting the planet in 2100, some four billion people already losing their lives to climate change, a projected 24% of the population living under chronic water scarcity if the temperature rises by more than 3.7°C above pre-industrial levels and global temperatures likely rising at least 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected population data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Percentage of the population expected to be living under chronic water scarcity based on 10 billion people inhabiting the planet come 2090. Sourced from Schewe et al. – 'Multimodel Assessment of Water Scarcity Under Climate Change' – Pages 3,245 to 3,250. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  24. Number of people suffering from chronic malnutrition a loose estimate based on 7.35 billion people inhabiting the world today, an estimated 11.2 billion people inhabiting the planet in 2100, some four billion people already losing their lives to climate change, 805 million people currently suffering from chronic malnutrition and a projected 77% reduction in crop availability come 2100. Current population based on 2015 data and sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected population data also sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Number of people currently suffering from chronic malnutrition based on 2014 data and sourced from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – 'State of Food Insecurity in the World in Brief' – Page 8. Projected reduction in crop productivity calculated within the 'World in 2100' section of the 'ZERO EMISSION WORLD Energy Database' and based on no significant change to our current diets. Estimate based on there being 1.56 billion hectares of cropland in 2007, a potential 1.41 billion hectares of additional cropland being available, 50% of additional cropland being used, cereal demand increasing from 2.1 billion tonnes in 2007 to 3.2 billion tonnes in 2080, average global temperatures likely rising by around 3.1°C between 2010 and 2100, grain yields decreasing by 15% for each 1°C rise in growing season temperature, 10 million hectares of cropland being lost to degradation each year, 10 million hectares of land being lost due to salinisation each year, grain yields increasing by around 31.7% for each 100 ppm increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide up until around 500 ppm, and grain yields further increasing by 1.69% each year until 2050 due to the adoption of new technologies and farming practices. Use of additional cropland an optimistic estimate based on the majority of potential cropland likely being pastures. Amount of cropland based on 2007 data and sourced from Alexandratos, Nikos and Bruinsma, Jelle – 'World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision' – Page 11. Cereal demand sourced from Alexandratos, Nikos and Bruinsma, Jelle – 'World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision' – Page 20. Projected temperature rise based on average global temperatures already rising by 0.9°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Rise of 0.9°C based on the rise in average global temperature recorded between 1880 and 2012. Sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report' – Page 2. Rise of 4°C based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Yield losses due to rises in growing season temperature sourced from Peng et al. – 'Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming' – Pages 9,971 to 9,975. Loss of cropland due to land degradation and salinisation sourced from Pimentel, David – 'Agriculture and Food Problems' – Page 514. Yield gains as a result of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere based on yield increases from grain grown in air that contains 500 micromoles of carbon dioxide per molecule compared to grain grown in air that contains 160 micromoles of carbon dioxide per molecule. Sourced from Baker et al. – 'Growth and Yield Responses of Rice to Carbon Dioxide Concentration' – Pages 313 to 320. Yield increases due to the adoption of new technologies and farming practices sourced from Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 10. It should be noted, 71% of our cropland is currently used to produce food for animals. Furthermore, pastures are often suitable for crop growth. As such, if the majority of the world's population become vegan, it is unlikely there would be any food shortages. Percentage of cropland used to produce food for livestock sourced from Carus, Michael and Raschka, Achim – 'Agricultural Resources for Bioplastics' – Page 45.
  25. Number of people forced to relocate due to sea-level rise a loose estimate based on 7.35 billion people inhabiting the world today, an estimated 11.2 billion people inhabiting the planet in 2100, 137 million people currently living at 2.9 metres above sea level or lower and global sea levels likely rising by an average of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Current population based on 2015 data and sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected population data also sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Number of people living at 2.9 metres above sea level or lower based on 2010 estimates and sourced from Strauss et al. – 'Mapping Choices: Carbon, Climate, and Rising Seas, Our Global Legacy' – Page 10. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  26. Loose estimate based on an estimated 35% of all species likely being committed to extinction if average global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels come 2050 and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Number of species committed to extinction sourced from Thomas et al. – 'Extinction Risk from Climate Change' – Pages 145 to 148. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  27. Based on coral reefs no longer being prominent within coastal ecosystems if average global temperatures rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Coral presence sourced from Frieler et al. – 'Limiting Global Warming to 2°C is Unlikely to Save Most Coral Reefs' – Pages 165 to 170. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  28. Forest loss based on projections from The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services that a 4°C rise in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels would destroy some 85% of the Amazon and average global temperatures likely rising at least 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Losses to the Amazon sourced from Adam, David – 'Amazon Could Shrink by 85% Due to Climate Change, Scientists Say' – www.theguardian.com. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Ocean being effectively dead based on the two major types of zooplankton, foraminifera and pteropods, both being unlikely to survive in waters with a pH of 7.9 or less and the pH level for oceans in the tropics, subtropics and temperate zone all falling below 7.9 come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Foraminifera lack of resilience in more acidic waters sourced from Uthicke et al. – 'High Risk of Extinction of Benthic Foraminifera in this Century Due to Ocean Acidification' – Pages 1 to 5. PH reduction sourced from Figure 3 of Caldeira, Ken and Wickett, Michael – 'Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean' – Page 6. Pteropods lack of resilience in more acidic waters sourced from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Ocean Portal – 'Ocean Acidification' – ocean.si.edu. Projections assume human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  29. Thawing permafrost soil based on thawing likely increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent by a further 178 ppm between 2100 and 2300 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Forest fires based on an estimated 7.3 to 14.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere each year due to forest fires and that figure likely increasing by at least 50% and up to as much as 300% as a result of climate change. Sourced from Power, Lauren – 'Global Wildfires, Carbon Emissions and the Changing Climate' – Pages 1 to 6. Vegetation feedback based on the terrestrial biosphere acting as an overall carbon sink until global temperatures rise by around 2°C above pre-industrial levels, at which point the terrestrial biosphere becomes a carbon emitter. Sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187.
  30. Based on the world's forests absorbing some 14.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, the equivalent of 30% of our current greenhouse gas emissions, and much of the world's forests being lost as a result of climate change. Amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the world's forests sourced from Pan et al. – 'A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests' – Page 989. Current greenhouse gas emissions based on 2015 data sourced from Crippa et al. – 'Fossil CO2 and GHG Emissions of All World Countries - 2019 Report' – Database. Loss based on an estimated 232 million hectares of forest land being destroyed if no measures are put in place to reduce deforestation, projections from The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services that a 4°C rise in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels would destroy some 85% of the Amazon and average global temperatures likely rising at least 4°C above pre-industrial levels come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Extent of deforestation sourced from World Wild Fund for Nature – 'Living Forests Report: Chapter 1, Forests for a Living Planet' – Page 16. Destruction of the Amazon sourced from Adam, David – 'Amazon Could Shrink by 85% Due to Climate Change, Scientists Say' – www.theguardian.com. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22.
  31. Very loose estimate based on the terrestrial biosphere alone being able to instigate a temperature rise of 1.5°C between 2000 and 2100. Sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187.
  32. Sea-level rise based on sea levels likely rising by 3.3 metres due to the melting of West Antarctica, 6.1 metres due to the melting of Greenland, 5.1 metres due to the melting of the East Antarctic Aurora Basin, 3.5 metres due to the melting of the East Antarctic Wilkes Basin and 1.6 metres due to ocean expansion over the next two millennia if drastic action is not taken immediately to reduce human-made greenhouse gas emissions. Sourced from Le Page, Michael – 'Latest Numbers Show at Least 5 Metres Sea-level Rise Locked In' – Pages 8 to 10.

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