How Different Will the World Be in the 2090s?

Even if we switch to renewables by 2060, the last ten years of the 21st century will likely witness average global temperatures rising by some 4.1°C, peak temperatures rising by 14°C and occurrences of El Niño and La Niña doubling.

2090 – Carbon Concentrations Continue to Increase!

World leaders have released a report detailing how the combination of human-made greenhouse gas emissions and changes to the world's natural carbon cycle has resulted in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceeding 950 ppm.1 Consequently, average global temperatures have risen by as much as 4.1°C above pre-industrial levels.2 The news was greeted by huge protests around the world with billions unable to understand why emissions were not reduced when we had the chance. In response, world leaders say the blame does not lie with them, but with previous generations who failed to act when they had the opportunity.
Scientists Talking to the Press

2092 – Climate Refugees Now in the Billions

As climate change takes its toll, billions are now desperately trying to migrate north.3 In Africa, those who have survived the famine and water shortages are gathering up anything they have of value and marching in desperation towards Algeria.4 There, they hope to buy illegal passage into Europe via one of the thousands of pirate vessels that have taken hold of the Mediterranean. Across southern Europe, some 220 million people are frantically trying to escape the food and water shortages that now grip many nations.5 In Latin America, over 140 million people are marching towards the United States in the hope of being able to break through the border.6 Few are having any success though, with a six-metre guarded wall now spanning the entire length of the border.7 Meanwhile, in the USA, some 63 million people have been forced to relocate as a result of the megadroughts that have consumed the central states.8 Moving further west, nearly a billion people in Southern Asia are now desperately trying to migrate to Russia as famine, floods, sea-level rises and water shortages decimate the continent.9 Lastly, in the Middle East, some 23 million people are desperately trying to migrate north as the extreme temperatures have made much of the area uninhabitable.10 Around the globe, the migrations have led to unprecedented levels of civil unrest. Citywide riots have become commonplace, world landmarks have been burnt to the ground, hundreds of thousands of cars have been torched, shops are being pillaged on a daily basis, and the number of racially motivated assaults and murders has become sickeningly out of control.11 In response, many countries are now charging extortionate immigration fees.12 This has caused enormous political tension with those countries most affected by climate change now threatening major military action.
Entire Cities Deserted as Temperatures Spiral Out of Control

2093 – El Niño Doubles in Frequency

An unprecedented series of tropical storms, droughts, bushfires and floods have confirmed scientists' worst fears - occurrences of the Great El Niño have doubled.13 Previously occurring every 20 years,14 the Great El Niño is caused by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.15 This results in huge increases in rainfall for much of the USA, intense droughts and water scarcity throughout much of South America, South Africa and Asia in addition to a surge in the number of hurricanes and cyclones that form in the central and south-east Pacific Ocean.16 However, due to the rise in average global temperatures, the Great El Niño now raises its ugly head every ten years.17 The consequences have been devastating. During the last Great El Niño, a record-breaking 35 hurricanes and cyclones struck the northern hemisphere destroying more than 20 million homes in addition to taking the lives of an estimated 200,000 people.18 Added to this, some 600,000 people lost their lives as widespread drought devastated South America and Africa.19 If that wasn't tragic enough, the Great El Niño's sister event, the Great La Niña has also doubled in frequency.20 Usually occurring around a year after the Great El Niño, the Great La Niña has almost the opposite impact on weather conditions.21 This includes intense droughts throughout much of the USA, huge increases in rainfall for parts of South America, Africa and Australia, in addition to a surge in both the number of hurricanes and cyclones that form in the North Atlantic and the south-west Pacific.22 The consequences of this have been equally devastating. In the USA, vast swathes of cropland have been destroyed leaving millions chronically undernourished.23 In Asia, an unprecedented series of river floods have hit some 400 million people in addition to destroying more than 20 million buildings.24 In South America, some 50,000 people have lost their lives in flash floods and landslides that have buried whole towns under three metres of mud.25 Lastly, in Asia, a record-breaking 29 typhoons have struck taking the lives of some 150,000 people and causing some $300 billion worth of damage.26 Altogether, this means the Great El Niño and La Niña have been responsible for the loss of more than a million lives in addition to more than $1.3 trillion in damage.27 Disastrously too, climatologists state things are only going to get worse. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise, so too will the frequency and intensity of both the Great El Niño and the Great La Niña. As a result, both the cost of damages and the number of lives taken will continue to rise over the coming decades.
El Niño and La Niña Leave Coastal Towns in Ruin

2097 – Temperatures in Cities Rise by 14°C

Extreme summer temperatures have rendered many of the world's greatest cities almost unbearable to live in. In the United States, peak summer temperatures in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, Baltimore and Detroit have all exceeded 41°C.28 That is a 14°C rise on those experienced at the turn of the century. In Europe, things have become even hotter with temperatures in Barcelona and Budapest reaching more than 43°C.29 The temperature rises are not limited to these cities though, with Paris, London, Berlin, Prague and Vienna all experiencing 12°C rises in peak temperatures.30 This has led to many becoming so desperate for water that they have drilled through their basements in the hope of tapping into underwater flows.31 Things are not much better in Asia either, where peak temperatures have risen by more than 8°C in Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing.32 Furthermore, in the Middle East, temperatures have become so high that much of the population has been given no choice but to relocate.33 This includes the cities Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi which contain some six million people between them.34 Around the globe, many have been left baffled by the extreme temperature rises as they believed the temperatures would rise by no more than 4°C. Scientists state this was never the case, explaining that the majority of the rise actually occurs on just 29% of the Earth's surface.35 Added to this temperature rises vary greatly as a result of local geological conditions and climatic variations.36 When the massive amounts of heat that are absorbed by the tarmac roads, concrete pavements and stone buildings are added, an unbearable set of living conditions is created for even the most resilient city dweller.37 Moreover, with emissions continuing to increase, peak temperatures are only going to rise further.38 This means it is just a matter of time before many of our favourite European, American and Asian cities become effectively uninhabitable during the summer months.39
Extreme Temperatures Have Made City Living Unbearable

Climate Change in the Next Century

Unfortunately, the damage caused by climate change does not stop here. Find out what our planet will look like in 2100 by selecting the link below. Alternatively, find out how we can stop climate change by returning to the main menu.

Image Credits

Image of scientists talking to the press created by SUPER RADICAL LTD. Base image taken by FORES, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY 2.0. Onscreen image taken by David Shankbone, released on Wikimedia Commons and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY-SA 3.0.

Image of deserted city created by everlite and reproduced under license from iStock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

Image of flooded coastal town created by varuna and reproduced under license from Shutterstock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

Image of New York heatwave taken by kasto and reproduced under license from Adobe Stock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

General Notes

Barrels of oil equivalent is based on 1628.2 kWh of energy being contained within each barrel. Data sourced from Unit Juggler – 'Converter: Barrel of Oil Equivalent to Kilowatt-Hour' – unitjuggler.com.

The volume of one tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to 556.2 cubic metres. Sourced from International Carbon Bank and Exchange – 'CO2 Volume Calculation' – www.icbe.com.

For further information about any of the sources listed, please visit the ZERO EMISSION WORLD Works Cited page.

Article Endnotes

  1. Based on human-made greenhouse gas emissions increasing at the current rate until 2060, stopping by 2070 and the resulting emissions from the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost being roughly equivalent to Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Atmospheric concentrations include all forcing agents and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  2. Based on human-made greenhouse gas emissions increasing at the current rate until 2060, stopping by 2070 and the resulting emissions from the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost being roughly equivalent to Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Projected temperature rise based on a rise over pre-industrial levels and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 to 11.
  3. Loose estimate based on comments from Lord Stern, writer of 'The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change', and sourced from Confino, Jo – 'Lord Stern: Global Warming May Create Billions of Climate Refugees' – www.theguardian.com.
  4. Famine based on projections that two-thirds of Africa's arable land will be lost between 2005 and 2025 in addition to the population increasing from around 1.19 billion in 2015 to around 4.39 billion in 2100. Loss of arable land sourced from United Nations Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 9. Projected population increase sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Water shortages based on a projected 459 million Africans suffering from chronic water scarcity come 2055 if the population of Africa continues to expand and human-made greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Sourced from Arnell, Nigel W. – 'Climate Change and Global Water Resources: SRES Emissions and Socio-Economic Scenarios' – Pages 40, 43 and 44. Please note, land loss is not solely due to climate change, but also a result of inappropriate farming systems, overgrazing, poor land management practices, lack of soil and water conservation structures and a high incidence of indiscriminate bushfires. Sourced from United Nations, Economic and Social Council, Economic Commission for Africa – 'Africa Review Report on Drought and Desertification' – Page 4.
  5. Loose estimate based on 10% of the population of Spain, Portugal, France, Greece, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Turkey migrating north if peak summer temperatures rise between 6°C and 12°C, peak summer temperatures likely rising between 6°C and 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected peak temperature rises sourced from Clark, Brown, and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Population based on 2100 projections sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Pages 18 to 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  6. Loose estimate based on 20% of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean migrating north if peak summer temperatures rise by 12°, peak summer temperatures likely rising by 12° for many parts if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Population based on 2100 projections sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected peak temperature rises sourced from Clark, Brown, and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  7. Based on Donald Trump's plan to construct a wall between the USA and Mexico in order to reduce illegal immigration. Sourced from Bixby, Scott and Agren, David – 'Trump Reveals Plan to Finance Mexico Border Wall with Threat to Cut Off Funds' – www.theguardian.com.
  8. Loose estimate based on around 50% of the population of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota being forced to relocate as a result of projected multidecadal megadroughts occurring over the Central Plains and Southwest regions of North America. Projected multidecadal megadroughts based on studies undertaken that demonstrate a higher than 80% chance of multidecadal megadroughts during 2050 to 2099 that exceed even the persistent megadroughts that characterised the medieval era if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. States selected based on the states that experienced mild (-1) to severe (-3) drought between 1,146 and 1,155 according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Sourced from Woodhouse et al. – 'A 1,200-Year Perspective of 21st Century Drought in Southwestern North America' – Page 21,286. Population affected based on 2015 state data and sourced from United States Census Bureau – 'Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States' – Table 1. Projected multidecadal megadroughts sourced from Cook, Ault, and Smerdon – 'Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains' – Pages 1 to 7. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  9. Very loose estimate based on an estimated 65% reduction in crop production resulting in 30% of the population of Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam attempting to migrate. Crop reduction calculated within the 'World in 2100' section of the 'ZERO EMISSION WORLD Energy Database' and based on no significant change to our current diets. Estimate based on there being 1.56 billion hectares of cropland in 2007, a potential 1.41 billion hectares of additional cropland being available, 50% of additional cropland being used, cereal demand increasing from 2.1 billion tonnes in 2007 to 3.2 billion tonnes in 2080, average global temperatures likely rising by around 2.8°C between 2010 and 2090, grain yields decreasing by 15% for each 1°C rise in growing season temperature, 10 million hectares of cropland being lost to degradation each year, 10 million hectares of land being lost due to salinisation each year, grain yields increasing by around 31.7% for each 100 ppm increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide up until around 500 ppm, and grain yields further increasing by 1.69% each year until 2050 due to the adoption of new technologies and farming practices. Use of additional cropland an optimistic estimate based on the majority of potential cropland likely being pastures. Amount of cropland based on 2007 data and sourced from Alexandratos, Nikos and Bruinsma, Jelle – 'World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision' – Page 11. Cereal demand sourced from Alexandratos, Nikos and Bruinsma, Jelle – 'World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision' – Page 20. Projected temperature rise based on average global temperatures already rising by 0.9°C above pre-industrial levels and average global temperatures likely rising to more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Rise of 0.9°C based on the rise in average global temperature recorded between 1880 and 2012. Sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report' – Page 2. Rise of 4°C based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Yield losses due to rises in growing season temperature sourced from Peng et al. – 'Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming' – Pages 9,971 to 9,975. Loss of cropland due to land degradation and salinisation sourced from Pimentel, David – 'Agriculture and Food Problems' – Page 514. Yield gains as a result of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere based on yield increases from grain grown in air that contains 500 micromoles of carbon dioxide per molecule compared to grain grown in air that contains 160 micromoles of carbon dioxide per molecule. Sourced from Baker et al. – 'Growth and Yield Responses of Rice to Carbon Dioxide Concentration' – Pages 313 to 320. Yield increases due to the adoption of new technologies and farming practices sourced from Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 10. It should be noted, 71% of our cropland is currently used to produce food for animals. Furthermore, pastures are often suitable for crop growth. As such, if the majority of the world's population become vegan, it is unlikely there would be any food shortages. Percentage of cropland used to produce food for livestock sourced from Carus, Michael and Raschka, Achim – 'Agricultural Resources for Bioplastics' – Page 45.
  10. Loose estimate based on 30% of the population of United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman attempting to migrate due to extreme summer temperatures making many cities uninhabitable during the summer months as well as an estimated 50% of the Middle East's water demand not being met. Extreme summer temperatures based on climate model simulations that project wet-bulb temperatures are likely to approach and, on occasions, exceed 35°C in multiple areas of the Middle East come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Wet-bulb temperatures in the Middle East sourced from Pal, Jeremy and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. – 'Future Temperature in Southwest Asia Projected to Exceed a Threshold for Human Adaptability' – Pages 197 to 200. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Lack of habitability based on human body temperature rising by about 1°C every 45 minutes in wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C, the average temperature of the human body being 37°C and body temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal. Rise in body temperature and average human body temperature sourced from of Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress - Supporting Information' – Page 1. Temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal sourced from Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Page 9,552. Water shortages based on 2040 to 2050 projections for the Middle East if human-made greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Sourced from Immerzeel et al. – 'Middle-East and Northern Africa Water Outlook' – Pages 72 to 74. Population data based on 2100 projections and sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Pages 18 to 22.
  11. Loosely based on the 2005 riots that occurred in Paris. Sourced from Burke, Jason – 'Fires of 'Civil War' Erupt in Paris' – www.theguardian.com.
  12. Loosely based on recent legislation in Switzerland and Denmark that requires all migrants entering either country to turn over any asset greater than around $1,000. Sourced from – 'Switzerland Seizing Assets from Refugees to Cover Costs' – www.theguardian.com.
  13. Based on extreme El Niño events likely doubling this century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. El Niño events likely doubling sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increasing Frequency of Extreme El Niño Events Due to Greenhouse Warming' – Pages 111 to 116. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  14. Previous occurrences based on climate model simulations between 1891 and 1990. Sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increasing Frequency of Extreme El Niño Events Due to Greenhouse Warming' – Page 113.
  15. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service – 'What are El Niño and La Niña?' – oceanservice.noaa.gov.
  16. Increases in rainfall and drought based on map data sourced from Met Office – 'ENSO Impacts' – www.metoffice.gov.uk. Increase in cyclone activity within North America sourced from Camargo, Suzana and Sobel, Adam – 'Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO' – Pages 2,996 to 3,006. Increase in cyclones within the central and south-east Pacific. Sourced from Chu, Pao-Shin – 'ENSO and Tropical Cyclone Activity' – Pages 297 to 332. It should be noted, El Niño events also reduce occurrences of hurricanes in the Northern Atlantic and cyclones in the south-west Pacific.
  17. Based on extreme El Niño events likely doubling this century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. El Niño events likely doubling sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increasing Frequency of Extreme El Niño Events Due to Greenhouse Warming' – Pages 111 to 116. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  18. Number of cyclones based on a record-breaking 30 major hurricanes and cyclones occurring within the northern hemisphere during 2015. Sourced from NASA Earth Observatory – 'Records Fall in 2015 Cyclone Season' – earthobservatory.nasa.gov. Cyclone damage a loose estimate based on the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991 and sourced from Encyclopaedia Britannica – 'Bangladesh Cyclone of 1991' – www.britannica.com. For reference, the El Niño event that occurred in 2015 and was categorised as 'Very Strong' and the El Niño event that occurred in 1991 to 1992 and was categorised as 'Moderate'. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  19. Number of lives lost a loose estimate based on the 450,000 people that lost their lives due to the droughts experienced during the 1982 to 1983 El Niño event. Sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. For reference, the 1982 to 1983 El Niño event was categorised as a 'Very Strong'. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  20. Based on extreme La Niña events likely doubling this century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. La Niña events likely doubling sourced from Cai et al. – 'Increased Frequency of Extreme La Nina Events Under Greenhouse Warming' – Pages 132 to 137. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  21. Based on climate model simulations that indicate 75% of extreme La Niña events occur after extreme El Niño events. Sourced from of Cai et al. – 'Increased Frequency of Extreme La Nina Events Under Greenhouse Warming' – Page 134.
  22. Increases in rainfall and drought based on map data sourced from Met Office – 'ENSO Impacts' – www.metoffice.gov.uk. Increase in hurricanes within the Northern Atlantic and cyclones within the south-west Pacific. Sourced from Chu, Pao-Shin – 'ENSO and Tropical Cyclone Activity' – Pages 297 to 332. It should be noted, El Niño events also reduce occurrences of cyclones within the central and south-east Pacific.
  23. Loss of cropland a loose estimate based on drought durations increasing from several years to several decades, drought intensity increasing when extreme La Niña events occur and crop yields already falling by more than 50% in some states as a result of the 2012 droughts experienced by the United States. Increase in drought durations sourced from Cook et al. – 'Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains' – Pages 1 to 7. Crop yield losses sourced from United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service – 'Crop Production: 2014 Summary' – Page 10.
  24. Loosely based on the floods experienced by China during the 1998 to 1999 La Niña event which affected some 240 million Chinese people and destroyed some 5 million Chinese homes. Sourced Lott et al. – 'Flooding in China Summer 1998' – Page 1. For reference, the 1998 to 1999 La Niña event was categorised as a 'Moderate' event. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  25. Loosely based on the floods and landslides experienced by Venezuela during the 1998 to 1999 La Niña event which resulted in between 25,000 and 50,000 Venezuelans losing their lives. Sourced from Takahashi et al. – 'Flood and Sediment Disasters Triggered by 1999 Rainfall in Venezuela; A River Restoration Plan for an Alluvial Fan' – Pages 65 to 82. For reference, the 1998 to 1999 La Niña event was categorised as a 'Moderate' event. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  26. Number of typhoons landing a loose estimate based on climate model simulations that suggest an average of 23.8 cyclones make landfall during La Niña years. Sourced from Wu et al. – 'Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Activity in the Western North Pacific'– Pages 1,419 to 1,428. Number of lives lost loosely based on the 140,000 lives lost during the 2007 to 2008 La Niña years. Economic damage loosely based on the $500 billion of damage caused during 1999 to 2000 La Niña years. Number of lives lost and economic damages sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. For reference, both the 1999 to 2000 and the 2007 to 2008 La Niña events were categorised as 'Moderate' events. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  27. Number of lives lost a loose estimate based on 200,000 people losing their lives to El Niño cyclones, 600,00 people losing their lives to El Niño droughts, 50,000 people losing their lives to La Niña flash floods and 150,000 people losing their lives to La Niña cyclones. Cost of damages based on the combined global damages that occurred as a result of the 1998 and 1999 cyclones, the 1998 and 1999 floods, the 2003 droughts, the 2003 summer heatwaves and the 1999 landslides. Number of lives lost and cost of damages sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. For reference, the 1997 to 1998 El Niño event was categorised as a 'Very Strong', the 2002 to 2003 event was categorised as a 'Moderate' and the 1999 to 2000 La Niña event was also categorised as a 'Moderate'. Sourced from Null, Jan – 'El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities' – ggweather.com.
  28. Based on average high temperatures in New York exceeding 30°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Philadelphia exceeding 31°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Chicago exceeding 29°C in July 2011 between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Washington exceeding 32°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Baltimore exceeding 31°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Detroit exceeding 29°C in July between 1985 and 2015, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C for New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, Baltimore and Detroit if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Average high temperature in New York sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in New York, New York, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Philadephia sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Chicago sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Chicago, Illinois, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Washington sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Washington DC, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Baltimore sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Baltimore, Maryland, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Detroit sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Detroit, Michigan, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Projected rise in peak temperatures sourced from Clark, Brown, and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  29. Based on average high temperatures in Barcelona exceeding 29°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average high temperatures in Budapest exceeding 28°C in July between 1985 and 2015, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C for Barcelona and Budapest if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Average high temperature in Barcelona sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain' – www.timeanddate.com. Average high temperature in Budapest sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Budapest, Hungary' – www.timeanddate.com. Projected rise in peak temperatures sourced from Clark, Brown, and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  30. Based on likely peak temperature rises if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Peak temperature rises sourced from Clark, Brown and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  31. Based on residents in São Paulo drilling through their basements in search of water during the droughts experienced in 2015. Sourced from McKie, Robin – 'Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis' – www.theguardian.com.
  32. Based on likely peak temperature rises if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Peak temperature rises sourced from Clark, Brown and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  33. Based on six hours of exposure to wet-bulb temperatures higher than 35°C being lethal for even the fittest of people and peak temperatures in multiple areas of the Middle East likely exceed 35°C come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Wet-bulb temperatures higher than 35°C being lethal based on body temperature rising by about 1°C every 45 minutes in wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C, the average temperature of the human body being 37°C and body temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal. Rise in body temperature and average human body temperature sourced from of Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress - Supporting Information' – Page 1. Temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal sourced from Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Page 9,552. Wet-bulb temperatures in exceeding 35°C in the Middle East sourced from Pal, Jeremy and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. – 'Future Temperature in Southwest Asia Projected to Exceed a Threshold for Human Adaptability' – Pages 197 to 200. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  34. Based on Dubai having a population of 2.5 million people, Doha having a population of 0.8 million people and Abu Dhabi having a population of 2.6 million. Dubai population based on 2016 data and sourced from Dubai Online – 'Population' – www.dubai-online.com. Doha population based on 2010 data and sourced from Qatar Statistics Authority – 'Population by Sex and Municipality'. Abu Dhabi population based on 2014 data and sourced from Abu Dhabi eGovernment Gateway – 'Abu Dhabi Emirate: Facts and Figures' – www.abudhabi.ae.
  35. Greater temperature rises over land based on historical data sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis' – Page 252. Percentage of the Earth's surface covered by land sourced from Encyclopaedia Britannica – 'Ocean' – www.britannica.com.
  36. Based on a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 likely resulting in peak temperature changes of as little as -2°C in some parts to more than 12°C in other parts. Sourced from Clark, Brown and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425.
  37. Additional heat absorbed by urban areas based on the 'heat island' effect and sourced from Encyclopaedia Britannica – 'Urban Climate' – www.britannica.com.
  38. Based on projected greenhouse gas releases due to thawing permafrost, forest fires and vegetation.
  39. Based on the human body not being able to use evaporative cooling if wet-bulb temperatures are greater than 35°C and projected peak wet-bulb temperatures in Chicago exceeding 35°C come 2100. Peak wet-bulb temperatures in Chicago based on average high temperatures exceeding 29°C in July between 1985 and 2015, average humidity levels exceeding 68% during July, peak temperatures likely rising more than 12°C if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide double from those measured in 2005 and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely doubling by around 2080 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Temperature requirements for evaporative cooling sourced from Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Pages 9,552 to 9,555. Average high temperature in Chicago sourced from Time and Date AS – 'Climate & Weather Averages in Chicago, Illinois, USA' – www.timeanddate.com. Average humidity levels for Chicago sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Chicago (Illinois), United States of America' – weather-and-climate.com. Projected rise in peak temperatures sourced from Clark, Brown and Murphy – 'Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments' – Page 4,425. Projected increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.

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