What Will the World Look Like in the 2060s?

If our emissions continue to increase at the current rate, the 2060s will see most of the much of the tropical ocean becoming toxic to marine life, entire cities being abandoned and much of the world's water supplies drying up.

2060 – World Leaders to Stop Emissions

As climate change spirals out of control, governments around the world have united together to stop all human-made greenhouse gas emissions within the next decade. Sadly, scientists state that this will prove to be too little, too late. With atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide already exceeding 725 ppm,1 there is now nothing to stop average global temperatures exceeding 4°C.2
Newly Constructed Flood Defences

2063 – India Devastated by Famine

India is left in crisis as more than half a billion people are now without food as a combination of rising temperatures and intense, unpredictable rainfall has destroyed much of the nation's farmland.3 In previous years, this shortfall has been offset by other countries, however, with food shortages now gripping the planet, many countries are struggling to meet their own food demand, let alone India's too.4 The UN has described the current crisis as the biggest disaster in India's history. Already, thousands of children are dying from food poisoning after having no choice but to eat rotten food.5 To combat the food shortages, the Indian government has been forced to introduce strict rationing limiting many regions to just a single meal per day. Climatologists state things are only going to get worse for India though. As global temperatures continue to rise, soil productivity will continue to decrease. Added to this, rainfall will become even more intense and unpredictable leading to more frequent droughts and flooding.6 Scientists believe this will result in some 200 million people could losing their life to malnutrition by the end of the decade.7
Huge Swathes of India Washed Away by the Monsoon Rain

2066 – Carbon Emissions Turn the Oceans Toxic

Scientists have today released a report describing how greenhouse gases have not only caused a rise in global temperatures but have also made much of the tropical ocean toxic to marine life. Due to the burning of fossil fuels, our oceans have been absorbing carbon dioxide some 50 times faster than normal, and as a result, the pH scale of the tropical ocean has dropped from around 8.2 to 7.9.8 While this drop might seem pretty insignificant, it means acidity levels in the tropical ocean have doubled since the industrial revolution.9 This has made it completely uninhabitable to a variety of calcareous marine life forms, including zooplankton, a near-microscopic lifeform that forms the foundation of the oceanic food chain.10 Nearly every fish in the ocean feeds either directly on zooplankton, or indirectly, by eating the fish that feed on the zooplankton.11 This means, as the zooplankton slowly disappears from the ocean, so too does nearly every other type of marine life. This includes larger predatory fish such as sharks, dolphins and whales, as well as smaller fish such as clownfish, pufferfish and angelfish. At current rates, scientists anticipate that nearly all marine life in the tropical ocean will be lost during the next decade. This means we could sail for thousands of miles across the ocean without encountering a single lifeform. The scientists also state that unless our greenhouse gas emissions are stopped immediately, nearly all the world's oceans will soon become too acidic for marine life.12
Dead Seals Wash Up From the Southern Ocean

2067 – World Reeling from Monster Storms

A catastrophic series of storms combined with rising sea levels has devastated numerous coastal cities around the globe.13 In Britain, over three million people have been forced to evacuate their homes, with the cost of damages anticipated to exceed $72 billion.14 In California, some 400,000 people have been left with no choice but to vacate their homes as floodwaters wash through the state.15 In total, around $7 billion of damage has been caused this year.16 In Florida, rising sea levels have forced some two million people to relocate.17 In Miami alone, the average annual costs of flooding are now $2.5 billion.18 Altogether, an estimated 13 million Americans have been affected by the rise in sea levels.19 In Asia, storm damage has crippled many of the continent's most famous cities. In Taipei, some 5 million people have been affected, in Manila more than 12 million people, and in Tokyo, more than 14 million people.20 Worst hit has been China, where 8,000 people have lost their lives, 30 million have been evacuated from their homes, and some 450 million people have been affected.21 Added to this some 32 million hectares of cropland have also been destroyed.22 India has not been spared either, with a total of 8 million affected in Mumbai and Chennai alone.23 In Mozambique, a combination of huge tropical cyclones and massive flooding has affected more than 40% of the country's population in addition to forcing more than 800,000 from their homes.24 Furthermore, crop growth has been decimated as 90% of the country's irrigation infrastructure has been damaged in addition to 80% of the country's cattle being killed.25 Finally, in Madagascar, where some two cyclones hit the country every three years,26 the addition of unprecedented levels of drought and crop loss has completely crippled the country.27 The most recent cyclone has resulted in some 300,000 people losing their homes, and with the country's government now bankrupt, it is unlikely many of these people will find any shelter for the foreseeable future.28 Altogether, the storms have taken the lives 150,000 people and affected more than 70 million.29 Added to this, some 35,000 people have lost their lives as a result of floods with more than 500 million affected.30 Unfortunately, as both temperatures and sea levels continue to rise, storm damage of this magnitude is going to become an even more frequent occurrence.
Bangkok Submerged Beneath the Sea31

2068 – Cities Abandoned Due to Rising Temperatures

Millions of people are now evacuating the Persian Gulf as peak summer temperatures have become too hot for the human body to endure. Scientists explain that in summer humidity levels of around 55%, humans can tolerate temperatures of up to 44°C, however, beyond this, the body is no longer able to sweat to cool itself down.32 As a result, even the healthiest person will die in as little as six hours.33 With temperatures now passing 44°C in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, many have decided to take the initiative and migrate before it is too late.34 Scientists believe they are making a wise decision too. If emissions continue to increase, they estimate that temperatures of 44°C will become a regular summer occurrence.35 What's more, only a matter of time before much of Asia, Africa, South America and Australia start experiencing such extreme temperatures.36
Cities Abandoned Due to Sweltering Temperatures

2069 – World’s Water Supply Dries Up

A combination of rising temperatures and a booming population have left more than 950 million people suffering from absolute water scarcity.37 Furthermore, an estimated 1.3 billion more people are being forced to contend with chronic water scarcity.38 The impacts of this have been devastating as the UN explains that as many as 35,000 children are dying each day due to the lack of clean water.39 Furthermore, with no water for sanitation, disease is now spreading at unprecedented rates. This year alone, some 6 million people are estimated to have died as due to a lack of sanitation.40 Moreover, some one billion people who depend on agriculture for their livelihood now have no source of income as they have no water left to irrigate their crops.41 Armed tribes have now formed, with villages being mercilessly pillaged for their remaining resources.42 Africa, the Middle East and much of Asia have been the worst hit,43 with many nations forced to introduce extreme levels of rationing to try and reduce the number of lives lost. Sadly though, as temperatures continue to rise, so too will the number of people suffering from water scarcity.
A Young Child Left Pleading for Water

Climate Change in the 2070s

The damage caused by climate changes not going to stop here! Find out what disasters our greenhouse gas emissions will likely cause in the next decade by selecting the link below. Alternatively, find out how we can stop climate change by returning to the main menu.

Image Credits

Image of flood defences taken by Aleksandr Kurganov and reproduced under license from Adobe Stock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

Image of floods in India created by SUPER RADICAL LTD. Base image taken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and released into the public domain. 

Image of washed up seals created by SUPER RADICAL LTD. Base image taken by ToddBF, released on Flickr and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY 2.0. Whale overlay sourced from taken by Nick R, released on the Geograph website and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY-SA 2.0.

Image of Bangkok flooded based on maps generated from Geology.com – ‘Global Sea Level Rise Map’ – geology.com. Image created by SUPER RADICAL LTD. Cityscape underlay taken by tonefotografia and reproduced under license from Adobe Stock. Storm clouds underlay taken by Kevin Udy, released on Colorado Clouds Blog and reproduced under Creative Commons license CC BY-SA 3.0. Flood effect created using the Photoshop application ‘Flood’ by Flaming Pear.

Image of urban destruction created by petrafler and reproduced under license from Adobe Stock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

Image of boy and tap taken by TinnaPong and reproduced under license from Shutterstock. Minor modifications undertaken by SUPER RADICAL LTD.

General Notes

Barrels of oil equivalent is based on 1628.2 kWh of energy being contained within each barrel. Data sourced from Unit Juggler – 'Converter: Barrel of Oil Equivalent to Kilowatt-Hour' – unitjuggler.com.

The volume of one tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to 556.2 cubic metres. Sourced from International Carbon Bank and Exchange – 'CO2 Volume Calculation' – www.icbe.com.

For further information about any of the sources listed, please visit the ZERO EMISSION WORLD Works Cited page.

Article Endnotes

  1. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at.
  2. Based on the terrestrial biosphere likely releasing a further 250 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere if global temperatures rise by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, thawing permafrost soil likely releasing a further 58 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere come 2100 even if all human-made greenhouse gas emissions are stopped by the end of the century and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceeding 1,000 ppm likely leading to a global temperature rise of 4°C over pre-industrial levels. Increase in atmospheric concentrations due to human-made emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Projected temperature rise sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Page 22.
  3. Number of people without food a loose estimate based on India currently having a population of 1.3 billion people, India having a projected population of 1.7 billion people, projections that India will only be able to supply the food demand of 59% of its population come 2030, rising temperatures resulting in further yield losses of around 25% come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at twice the current rate and unpredictable rainfall likely leading to further yield losses. Current population based on 2014 data and sourced from The World Bank – 'Population, Total' – data.worldbank.org. Projected population based on 2050 projections and sourced United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 20. Food demand shortage sourced Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 22. Yield losses due to rising temperatures sourced from Guiteras, Raymond – 'The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture' – Page 4. Yield losses due to unpredictable rainfall sourced from Warrier, Gopikrishna – 'As Climate Change Disrupts the Annual Monsoon, India Must Prepare' – news.mongabay.com.
  4. Based on projections that, come 2030, East Asia will only be able to supply the food demand of 67% of its population and both South and South-East Asia will only be able to supply the food demand of 87% of its population. Sourced from Global Harvest Initiative – '2014 Global Agricultural Productivity Report' – Page 16.
  5. Based on diarrhoea being the second leading cause of death in children under five and one of the key causes of the disease being contaminated food. Sourced from World Health Organization – 'Diarrhoeal Disease, Fact Sheet 330' – www.who.int.
  6. Based on climate change already resulting in less predictable and more intense rainfall. Sourced from Warrier, Gopikrishna – 'As Climate Change Disrupts the Annual Monsoon, India Must Prepare' – news.mongabay.com.
  7. Very loose estimate based on 40% of those with limited access to food losing their lives as a result of malnutrition-related disease.
  8. Increase in carbon dioxide absorption based on quotes from Professor Ken Caldeira, a senior scientist at the Carnegie Institution's Global Ecology Department. Sourced from Leake, Jonathan – 'Acid Seas Kill Off Coral Reefs' – www.thesundaytimes.co.uk. Fall in pH levels based on a projected reduction from pre-industrial pH levels if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Reduction in pH levels sourced from Caldeira, Ken and Wickett, Michael – 'Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean' – Figure 3. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  9. Increase in acidity calculated using information sourced from Encyclopaedia Britannica – 'PH' – www.britannica.com.
  10. Lack of suitability for calcareous marine life based on coral, clams, urchins, starfish and zooplankton all being unlikely to survive in more acidic waters. Lack of suitability for calcareous marine life based on coral, clams, urchins and starfish sourced from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Ocean Portal – 'Ocean Acidification' – ocean.si.edu. Lack of suitability for zooplankton based on the two major types of zooplankton that build shells made of calcium carbonate, foraminifera and pteropods, both being unlikely to survive in waters with a pH of 7.9 or less. Foraminifera lack of resilience in more acidic waters sourced from Uthicke et al. – 'High Risk of Extinction of Benthic Foraminifera in this Century Due to Ocean Acidification' – Pages 1 to 5. Pteropods lack of resilience in more acidic waters sourced from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Ocean Portal – 'Ocean Acidification' – ocean.si.edu.
  11. Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Ocean Portal – 'Ocean Acidification' – ocean.si.edu.
  12. Based on the pH level for the majority of the world's oceans falling below 7.9 come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Reduction in pH levels sourced from Caldeira, Ken and Wickett, Michael – 'Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean' – Figure 3. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  13. Based on projected increases in storm intensity and a projected one-metre sea-level rise. Increase in storm intensity based on projections that there will be fewer tropical cyclones, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates and the number of very intense category 4 and 5 storms if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceed 580 ppm and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely increasing to 585 ppm come 2045 if human-made emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Changes to cyclone frequency and intensity sourced from Knutson et al. – 'Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios' – Pages 7,203 to 7,224. Atmospheric concentrations increase based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Projected sea-level rise based on projections of a likely average sea-level rise of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  14. Based on typical damages of $50,000 per household, all 490,000 current high flood risk UK properties being affected and half of the 1.9 million medium risk UK properties being affected. Typical damages based on data sourced from Bowker, Pam – 'Flood Resistance and Resilience Solutions: An R&D Scoping Study' – Page 3. Number of properties at risk sourced from Environment Agency – 'New Reports Highlight £20 Billion Investment Over 25 Years is Needed to Protect England from Increasing Flood Risk' – Page 2.
  15. Loose estimate based on a 1.4-metre sea-level rise putting around 480,000 people living in California at risk of a 100-year flood event. Sourced from Heberger et al. – 'The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast' – Page 40.
  16. Based on typical damages of $50,000 per household and an assumed 2.63 residents per household. Cost of damages sourced from Bowker, Pam – 'Flood Resistance and Resilience Solutions: An R&D Scoping Study' – Page 3. Average number of people per household based on 2010 to 2014 data and sourced from United States Census Bureau – 'Quick Facts: United States' – www.census.gov.
  17. Based on 2.4 million people within Florida living in areas just 1.2 metres above the local high tide. Sourced from Union of Concerned Scientists – 'Overwhelming Risk: Rethinking Flood Insurance in a World of Rising Seas' – Page 5.
  18. Based on 2050 projections sourced from Hallegatte et al. – 'Future Flood Losses in Major Coastal Cities' – Pages 802 to 806.
  19. Loose estimate based on sea levels rising by around one metre and a sea-level rise of 1.8 metres resulting in the homes of an estimated 13.1 million Americans becoming at risk of inundation from seawater. Projected sea-level rise based on projections of a likely average rise of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721. Number of people at risk sourced from Hauer et al. – 'Millions Projected to be at Risk from Sea-level Rise in the Continental United States' – Pages 691 to 695.
  20. Number of people affected a loose estimate based on 2014 risk analysis and sourced from Sundermann et al. – 'Mind the Risk - A Global Ranking of Cities Under Threat from Natural Disasters' – Page 28.
  21. Flood damage a loose estimate based on a doubling of the damage that occurred as a result of the 2010 floods experienced by China. Increase in damages based on the number of days of medium precipitation increasing by 1.5%, the number of days of large precipitation increasing by 6.0% and the number days of heavy precipitation increasing by 27.3% for each average temperature rise of 1°C experienced in China and global temperatures likely rising by 3°C above pre-industrial levels come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. 2010 China flood damages sourced from Xinhuanet – 'Floods, Landslides Leave 3,185 Dead in China This Year: MCA' – news.xinhuanet.com. Precipitation increase sourced from Chen, Huo Po – 'Projected Change in Extreme Rainfall Events in China by the End of the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Models' – Pages 1462 to 1472. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 and 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  22. Crop damage a loose estimate based on a doubling of the damage that occurred as a result of the 2010 floods experienced by China. Increase in damages based on the number of days of medium precipitation increasing by 1.5%, the number of days of large precipitation increasing by 6.0% and the number days of heavy precipitation increasing by 27.3% for each average temperature rise of 1°C experienced in China and global temperatures likely rising 3°C above pre-industrial levels come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. 2010 China flood damages sourced from Xinhuanet – 'Floods, Landslides Leave 3,185 Dead in China This Year: MCA' – news.xinhuanet.com. Precipitation increase sourced from Chen, Huo Po – 'Projected Change in Extreme Rainfall Events in China by the End of the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Models' – Pages 1,462 to 1,472. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 and 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  23. Number of people affected a loose estimate based on 2014 risk analysis and sourced from Sundermann et al. – 'Mind the Risk - A Global Ranking of Cities Under Threat from Natural Disasters' – Page 28.
  24. A loose estimate based on a 50% increase in the damage that occurred as a result of the floods experienced by Mozambique during the year 2000 that were exacerbated by the effects of Cyclone Eline. Increase in damages based on projected increases in storm intensity and around a one-metre sea-level rise. Increase in storm intensity based on projections that there will be fewer tropical cyclones, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates and the number of very intense category 4 and 5 storms if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalent exceed 580 ppm and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide likely increasing to 585 ppm come 2045 if human-made emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Changes to cyclone frequency and intensity sourced from Knutson et al. – 'Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios' – Pages 7,203 to 7,224. Atmospheric concentrations increase based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, including all forcing agents, and sourced from RCP Data Comparison – 'RCP Database' – www.iiasa.ac.at. Projected sea-level rise based on projections of a likely average sea-level rise of 1.5 metres by the end of the century if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Projected sea-level rise sourced from Horton et al. – 'Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300' – Pages 1 to 5. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  25. Irrigation damage and cattle loss loosely based on the damage that occurred as a result of the 2000 floods experienced by Mozambique. Irrigation damage sourced from Geleta, Bekele and Rees-Gildea, Peter – 'Mozambique and Zimbabwe: Flood Rehabilitation' – Page 2. Cattle loss sourced from Slaughter, Barbara – 'Mozambique Flood Disaster Shows Legacy of Colonial Oppression' – www.wsws.org.
  26. Number of cyclones striking Madagascar each year sourced from of Mechler, Reinhard and Hochrainer, Stefan – 'Preparing Madagascar for Cyclones' – Page 11.
  27. Based on projections that rising average global temperatures will result in water shortages, food shortages, dry rivers, reductions in soil fertility, famine and increased vulnerability to fires throughout Madagascar. Sourced from Heath, Tom – 'Madagascar Climate Change Briefing' – Pages 1 to 4.
  28. Loose estimate based on the 2004 Gafilo Cyclone which destroyed some 200,000 Madagascan homes. Sourced from Mechler, Reinhard and Hochrainer, Stefan – 'Preparing Madagascar for Cyclones' – Page 11.
  29. Loose estimate based on the number of lives lost as a result of the 2008 cyclones and the number of people affected by the 2006 cyclones. Sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be.
  30. Number of lives lost a loose estimate based on the number of lives lost as a result of the 2008 floods. Sourced from Guha-Sapir, Below, and Hoyois – 'EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database' – www.emdat.be. Number of people affected a loose estimate based on an estimated 450 million people being affected by floods in China alone.
  31. Impact on Bangkok estimated using maps generated from Geology.com – ‘Global Sea Level Rise Map’ – geology.com.
  32. Based on the human body not being able to use evaporative cooling if wet-bulb temperatures are greater than 35°C and a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C being the equivalent of an air temperature of 44°C when the air is 55% humid. For reference, the wet-bulb temperature is the temperature air would attain if it were cooled at constant pressure by evaporating all the water within it. Temperature requirements for evaporative cooling sourced from Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Pages 9,552 to 9,555. Summer humidity levels based on Dubai and sourced from World Weather and Climate Information – 'Climate in Dubai, United Arab Emirates' – weather-and-climate.com. Wet-bulb explanation sourced from Dunlop, Storm – 'Dictionary of Weather, Second Edition' – Page 288.
  33. Based on body temperature rising by about 1°C every 45 minutes in wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C, the average temperature of the human body being 37°C and body temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal. Rise in body temperature and average human body temperature sourced from of Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress - Supporting Information' – Page 1. Temperatures above between 42°C and 43°C being considered lethal sourced from Sherwood, Steven and Huber, Matthew – 'An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress' – Page 9,552.
  34. Based on climate model simulations that project wet-bulb summer temperatures are likely to approach 35°C in parts of the Middle East come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Wet-bulb temperatures in the Middle East sourced from Pal, Jeremy and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. – 'Future Temperature in Southwest Asia Projected to Exceed a Threshold for Human Adaptability' – Pages 197 to 200. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  35. Based on climate model simulations that project wet-bulb temperatures are likely to approach and, on occasions, exceed 35°C in multiple areas of the Middle East come 2100 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Wet-bulb temperatures in the Middle East sourced from Pal, Jeremy and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. – 'Future Temperature in Southwest Asia Projected to Exceed a Threshold for Human Adaptability' – Pages 197 to 200. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  36. Based on much of South America, Africa, India and Australia already experiencing higher average annual temperatures than the Middle East. Sourced from Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment – 'Average Annual Temperature' – Map.
  37. Based on a projected 9% of the population living under absolute water scarcity if average global temperatures rise by more than 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, the world's population likely increasing to around 10.3 billion people come 2070 and average global temperatures likely rising by 3°C above pre-industrial levels come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Population living under absolute water scarcity sourced from Schewe et al. – 'Multimodel Assessment of Water Scarcity Under Climate Change' – Pages 3,245 to 3,250. Population in 2070 calculated using data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 to 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  38. Based on a projected 21% of the population living under chronic water scarcity if average global temperatures rise by more than 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, the world's population likely increasing to around 10.3 billion people come 2070 and average global temperatures likely rising by 3°C above pre-industrial levels come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Population living under chronic water scarcity sourced from Schewe et al. – 'Multimodel Assessment of Water Scarcity Under Climate Change' – Pages 3,245 to 3,250. Population in 2070 calculated using data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 to 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  39. Based on diarrhoea currently being responsible for the death of 1.5 million children each year and this figure increasing ninefold. Increase loosely based on the number of people suffering from absolute water scarcity increasing from around 1.5% of the population to 9% of the population if average global temperatures rise by more than 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, the world's population increasing from 6.89 billion people in 2010 to around 10.3 billion people in 2070 and average global temperatures likely rising by 3°C above pre-industrial levels come 2070 if human-made greenhouse gas emissions increase at the current rate until 2060 and stop by 2070. Projection assumes human-made emissions result in the terrestrial biosphere and thawing permafrost soil releasing a further 351 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere by 2100. Current deaths from diarrhoea sourced from World Health Organization, Children's Environmental Health – 'Lack of Water and Inadequate Sanitation' – www.who.int. Increase in the number of people living under absolute water scarcity sourced from Schewe et al. – 'Multimodel Assessment of Water Scarcity Under Climate Change' – Pages 3,245 to 3,250. Population in 2010 sourced from the Population Reference Bureau – '2010 World Population Data Sheet' – Pages 6 to 9. Population in 2070 calculated using data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Projected temperature rise based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 'Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report' – Pages 10 to 11. Terrestrial biosphere emissions sourced from Cox et al. – 'Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model' – Pages 184 to 187. Thawing permafrost emissions based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and sourced from MacDougall et al. – 'Significant Contribution to Climate Warming from the Permafrost Carbon Feedback' – Pages 719 to 721.
  40. Loose estimate based on an estimated population of 10.3 billion people, around 0.8% of the world population losing their lives each year, 4% these lives being lost due to poor water supply, sanitation, or personal and domestic hygiene, and that figure doubling due to increased water scarcity. Projected population calculated using data sourced from United Nations – 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables' – Page 1. Global ratio of lives lost based on 2014 data sourced from The World Bank – 'Death Rate, Crude (per 1,000 People)' – data.worldbank.org. Current ratio of lives lost due to poor water supply, sanitation, or personal and domestic hygiene sourced Stanwell-Smith, Rosalind – 'Sanitation: Controlling Problems at Source' – Page 2.
  41. Loose estimate based on agriculture providing a source of livelihood for an estimated 2.5 billion rural people as well as providing jobs for some 1.3 billion others. Sourced from The World Bank – 'Agriculture and Poverty Reduction' – Page 1.
  42. Based on 80% of the major armed conflicts that affected society in 2007 occurring in vulnerable dry ecosystems. Sourced from United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification – 'Desertification: The Invisible Frontline' – Page 11.
  43. Based on these areas being currently categorised as having low, very low or catastrophically low levels of water availability. Sourced from United Nations Environment Programme – 'Global Environment Outlook 3' – Page 152.

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